Estimate your 2026 refund
Estimated federal refund
$0
How we got there
On this page
How your tax refund is calculated
A refund isn't a bonus from the IRS. It's the amount you overpaid through paycheck withholding and estimated payments, plus any refundable credits. The estimator follows the same order as Form 1040:
2. AGI = total income − adjustments − ½ self-employment tax
3. Taxable income = AGI − (standard or itemized deduction) − new Schedule 1-A deductions − QBI deduction
4. Income tax = 2026 brackets applied to taxable income
5. Total tax = income tax − nonrefundable credits + self-employment tax
6. Payments = withholding + estimated payments + refundable credits (ACTC, EITC)
7. Refund (or owed) = payments − total tax
Worked example: A single filer earns $60,000 in wages with $6,500 withheld. Taxable income = $60,000 − $16,100 standard deduction = $43,900. Tax = 10% × $12,400 + 12% × $31,500 = $1,240 + $3,780 = $5,020. Refund = $6,500 − $5,020 = $1,480. These are the default values in the calculator, so you can check each line yourself.
What's new for the 2026 tax year
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (signed July 4, 2025) changed several numbers that affect almost every refund. The IRS calls these the Working Families Tax Cuts. The new deductions are claimed on Schedule 1-A. You get them whether you take the standard deduction or itemize.
| Item | 2026 amount | Phase-out (modified AGI) |
|---|---|---|
| Standard deduction | $16,100 single · $32,200 joint · $24,150 head of household | — |
| Extra standard deduction, 65+ or blind | $2,050 each (unmarried) · $1,650 each (married) | — |
| Senior deduction (2025–2028) | $6,000 per person 65+ | Reduced 6% of MAGI over $75,000 ($150,000 joint) |
| No tax on tips (2025–2028) | Up to $25,000 of qualified tips | Reduced $100 per $1,000 over $150,000 ($300,000 joint) |
| No tax on overtime (2025–2028) | Up to $12,500 ($25,000 joint) of overtime premium | Reduced $100 per $1,000 over $150,000 ($300,000 joint) |
| Car loan interest (2025–2028) | Up to $10,000 | Reduced $200 per $1,000 over $100,000 ($200,000 joint) |
| Child Tax Credit | $2,200 per child under 17 · up to $1,700 refundable | Reduced $50 per $1,000 over $200,000 ($400,000 joint) |
| Credit for other dependents | $500 each | Same as Child Tax Credit |
| SALT cap (itemizers) | $40,400 | Reduced for MAGI over $505,000 |
Married couples must file jointly to claim the tips, overtime and senior deductions. “Overtime premium” means only the extra half of time-and-a-half pay required by the Fair Labor Standards Act, not your whole overtime check.
Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit
Credits cut your tax dollar for dollar. Refundable credits are the biggest reason families get large refunds: the part of the credit bigger than your tax is paid to you in cash.
Child Tax Credit (Form 8812)
Each child under 17 with a Social Security number is worth up to $2,200. If your tax is smaller than the credit, up to $1,700 per child can be refunded as the Additional Child Tax Credit. That amount is limited to 15% of earned income above $2,500.
Earned Income Tax Credit, 2026
| Qualifying children | Maximum credit | Phase-out starts (single/HOH) | Credit ends (single/HOH) | Credit ends (joint) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | $664 | $10,860 | $19,540 | $26,820 |
| 1 | $4,427 | $23,890 | $51,593 | $58,863 |
| 2 | $7,316 | $23,890 | $58,629 | $65,899 |
| 3 or more | $8,231 | $23,890 | $62,974 | $70,224 |
Investment income must be $12,200 or less. Without a qualifying child, you must be 25–64. The estimator computes the credit from the IRS formula rather than the lookup table, so results can differ from the official EIC table by a few dollars.
2026 federal income tax brackets
| Rate | Single | Married filing jointly | Head of household |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | $0 – $12,400 | $0 – $24,800 | $0 – $17,700 |
| 12% | $12,400 – $50,400 | $24,800 – $100,800 | $17,700 – $67,450 |
| 22% | $50,400 – $105,700 | $100,800 – $211,400 | $67,450 – $105,700 |
| 24% | $105,700 – $201,775 | $211,400 – $403,550 | $105,700 – $201,775 |
| 32% | $201,775 – $256,225 | $403,550 – $512,450 | $201,775 – $256,200 |
| 35% | $256,225 – $640,600 | $512,450 – $768,700 | $256,200 – $640,600 |
| 37% | over $640,600 | over $768,700 | over $640,600 |
How accurate is a tax refund estimate?
Every refund estimator, including the ones in tax software and credit apps, runs the same IRS formulas. The answer is only as good as two numbers: total taxable wages and federal tax withheld. When those match your W-2, a simple return is usually exact to within a few dollars.
Estimates drift when:
- You estimate mid-year and your pay, overtime or bonus changes later. Use the Project from my pay stub option and check again in December.
- You have income this tool treats simply: qualified dividends and long-term capital gains (lower rates), Social Security benefits (partly taxable), or self-employment income above the QBI threshold ($201,750 single, $403,500 joint).
- You qualify for credits not modeled here, such as education credits, the child and dependent care credit, the saver's credit or clean-vehicle credits. These would raise your refund.
- You owe other taxes, such as the 0.9% Additional Medicare Tax, the net investment income tax, or an early-withdrawal penalty.
We show every line of the calculation so you can see what's included and what isn't.
When will you get your refund?
- E-file with direct deposit: the IRS issues most refunds within 21 days.
- EITC or Additional Child Tax Credit: by law (the PATH Act), the IRS can't send these refunds before mid-February, even if you file in January.
- Paper returns take much longer. The IRS is also phasing out paper refund checks, so give your bank details on the return.
- Track your refund with the IRS Where's My Refund? tool, starting 24 hours after e-filing.
Too big a refund, or a bill? Fix it now with your W-4
If you'll owe
Divide the amount you expect to owe by the paychecks left this year. Enter that on Form W-4, Step 4(c) as extra withholding per pay period. With the pay-stub option, the estimator does this math for you. Owing more than $1,000 can also trigger an underpayment penalty, unless your withholding covers at least 90% of this year's tax or 100% of last year's (110% if your AGI was over $150,000).
If your refund is large
A big refund means you lent the IRS money interest-free. If you'd rather have it in each paycheck, file a new W-4 that claims your dependents (Step 3) or new deductions (Step 4(b)). The IRS Tax Withholding Estimator produces a filled-in W-4.
Frequently asked questions
How can I estimate my tax refund before I get my W-2?
Use your latest pay stub. Pick Project from my pay stub, enter the year-to-date federal taxable wages and federal tax withheld, plus the amounts from one paycheck. The estimator projects your totals through December 31.
Why is my refund smaller than last year?
The usual reasons: you earned more and moved into a higher bracket, a child turned 17 (the $2,200 credit drops to $500), your withholding was lowered on a new W-4, or you received income without withholding, such as 1099 work or unemployment.
Is the tax refund taxable?
A federal refund isn't income. A state refund can be taxable on next year's federal return if you itemized and deducted state income tax.
Does this include state tax?
No. This is a federal estimate. State refunds depend on your state's own rules and withholding.
What if I'm self-employed?
Enter net profit under Other income. We add self-employment tax (15.3% on 92.35% of profit, with the 12.4% Social Security part capped at the $184,500 wage base minus your W-2 wages), deduct half of it, and apply the 20% QBI deduction. Enter any quarterly payments as estimated payments.
How do I estimate a refund for the 2025 tax year?
This tool uses 2026 rules for returns filed in 2027. Most 2025 amounts are close (the 2025 standard deduction is $15,750 single, $31,500 joint), so the result gives a rough idea. Use tax software for a late 2025 return.
Sources and method
Last reviewed: September 27, 2026.
- IRS Revenue Procedure 2025-32: 2026 brackets, standard deduction, EITC parameters, $1,700 refundable Child Tax Credit, QBI thresholds. irs.gov
- IRS, Working Families Tax Cuts: deductions for tips, overtime, car loan interest and seniors. irs.gov
- IRS, Schedule 1-A, Additional Deductions. irs.gov
- IRS, Child Tax Credit and Schedule 8812 instructions. irs.gov
- Social Security Administration: 2026 wage base of $184,500 (used for self-employment tax). ssa.gov
- IRS, refund timing and the PATH Act. irs.gov/refunds
What the estimator assumes
- All dependents, and you, have valid Social Security numbers, and you meet the residency and relationship tests for each credit.
- Modified AGI equals AGI (true for most filers who have no foreign income exclusion).
- Interest, dividends and other income are taxed at ordinary rates. Qualified dividends and capital gains would be taxed at lower rates.
- The QBI deduction is 20% of qualified business income, capped at 20% of taxable income, with the new $400 minimum. W-2 wage and specified-service limits above the threshold aren't applied.
- The Additional Child Tax Credit uses the 15% earned-income formula. The alternative formula for three or more children isn't applied.
This is an estimate for planning. It isn't tax advice, and it doesn't file anything. Your actual refund is set by the return you file. NumberInWord.com isn't affiliated with the IRS.
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